Cotton Industry Is Expected To Improve
Cotton supply, demand and demand for us cotton in 2012/13
Ending inventory
It was higher than 2011/12.
The expected increase is 9%, based on planting intentions and average yield.
The abandonment rate is expected to reach 20%, which is higher than the average abandonment rate due to the continuous drought in Dezhou plateau.
The amount of cotton used in domestic textile mills is estimated to be 3 million 500 thousand packs, 100000 more than 2011/12.
Export forecast
The 12 million package increased by 5% over last year due to increased supply.
The final inventory is raised to 4 million 900 thousand bales.
It is estimated that the ratio of inventory to consumption is 32%, much higher than that in the past three years, but slightly higher than the average ratio of 30% in 10 years.
The average price received by the growers in the year of sale is 65-85 cents / pound, compared to the average price of 91 cents / pound in 2011/12.
The Ministry of agriculture's first forecast of world cotton in 2012/13 showed that inventories in the world ended second years in a row, resulting in 6 million 700 thousand more production than cotton consumption.
World production is expected to decline 5% from last year to 116 million 700 thousand packages, and all major cotton producing countries are expected to reduce production, except for the United States.
World cotton consumption is expected to increase by 3.3% because of the world
Gross domestic product
As well as the proportion of world fiber demand increased by a small margin, cotton prices are lower relative to polyester and improve the competitive position of cotton.
World trade is expected to reduce by 10%, and China will substantially reduce imports. However, a portion of China's reduction is offset by the expansion of cotton imports expected by other countries.
China
National Reserve
The stock is estimated to be close to 20 million bales.
The Chinese government has announced that 2012/13 supports prices higher than 2011/12's supporting prices and projected world prices; therefore, China's reserve agencies may purchase cotton in a significant proportion in 2012.
The Chinese government has yet to disclose how to solve the expected gap between production and consumption.
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