China'S Export Growth And Trade Surplus Fell Sharply In The First Half Of This Year.

Domestic economic growth has slowed down significantly, and the pace of RMB appreciation is expected to slow down.

Data released by the General Administration of Customs on 10 may show that in the first half of this year, China's cumulative trade surplus was 99 billion 30 million US dollars, down 11.8% from the same period last year, and a net decrease of US $13 billion 210 million.

Among them, the trade surplus in June was 21 billion 350 million US dollars, down 20.6% compared to the same period last year, a net decrease of US $5 billion 540 million.

Statistics show that the main reason for the decrease in trade surplus is relative slowdown in export growth and relative increase in import growth.

In the first half of this year, China exported 666 billion 600 million US dollars, an increase of 21.9%, the growth rate was 5.7 percentage points lower than that of the same period last year, and imports 567 billion 570 million US dollars, an increase of 30.6%, a growth rate of 12.4 percentage points higher than that of the same period last year.

In June, China exported 121 billion 530 million US dollars, an increase of 17.6%, and imports of US $100 billion 180 million, an increase of 31%. The scale of imports has exceeded US $100 billion for 3 consecutive months.

Recommended reading

Based on performance growth, firm value investment, three main investment lines, A shares rebound in a flash in the pan?

Olympic Games market to solve the "three questions" trade surplus net impact on which market forces and policy forces to compete in the second half of the year to push forward the gem business report: to hit the eight major products in the banking sector: the hot topic of the June is that the export and surplus data are lower than the market expectations, and the growth rate of exports is particularly obvious. The industry is worried that the Chinese economy is slowing down significantly, and the export growth rate in the second half of this year will continue to decline.

As a result, experts expect the government to ease the regulation of exports in the second half of the year, while the pace of RMB appreciation is expected to slow down.

The pace of RMB appreciation will slow down.

Because of the decline in export growth and the narrowing of the trade surplus and the signs of easing inflation in recent months, analysts generally believe that the rate of appreciation of the renminbi will slow significantly in the second half of the year.

"China should slow down the pace of RMB appreciation to lighten the damage to exporters.

But the United States and Europe are still pressing China to force the renminbi to appreciate. "

Lehman brothers Asia Pacific economist Sun Mingchun said.

He predicts that the yuan will rise to $6.70 against the US dollar at the end of this year, rising to 6.30 next year.

Shen Minggao, chief economist of Citibank, agrees.

"The Chinese government should slow down the process of RMB appreciation so that exporters can adjust their time," he said.

If a large number of enterprises are on the verge of bankruptcy due to the drop in profits, the economy will suffer huge losses. "

Standard Chartered Bank also said in its latest report that China's June export growth, which is much weaker than expected, means that the government's concerns over the export sector will intensify.

The bank believes that as the growth rate of trade surplus further slows down, the voice of exportation departments will bring heavy burden to export enterprises to accelerate the appreciation of RMB, and the pressure on the central bank to slow down RMB appreciation will also increase.

Export and surplus are in a downward trend.

According to the data released by the customs, exports in the first half of the year maintained an increase of more than 20%, reaching 21.9%. However, from the single month data in June, the decline of export growth can be described as "fast": 17.6% of the export growth rate dropped by more than 10 percentage points compared with that of May, while the trade surplus in June dropped by 20.5% over the same period last year.

"If we take into account the continued appreciation of the renminbi in June, then the decline in exports and surplus will be even greater in terms of Renminbi."

Li Huiyong, a macroeconomic analyst at Shenyang Wanguo, said that this will obviously drive the decline in industrial added value and GDP.

Ma Qing, an analyst with Monita's economic consultancy, also said that export growth continued to decline, the surplus dropped sharply compared with the same period last year, and import growth dropped from last month, indicating that economic growth is slowing down significantly.

Analysts are pessimistic about the export situation in the coming months.

Nie Wen, a macro analyst at Huabao trust, believes that the possibility that international commodity prices will decline in a short time is not likely to continue to have a negative impact on the global economy. It seems that the export situation in China in the coming months may be more pessimistic.

He predicted that in the next few months, the monthly export growth rate will remain at 16% to 18%, and the growth rate of imports will remain at around 30%, with a trade surplus of 150-200 billion dollars.

Haitong Securities (600837, stock bar) senior macroeconomic analyst Li Mingliang agreed.

He said that the trend of import growth over export will continue in the future, and the surplus will be more obvious in the second half of the year.

On the one hand, the external environment continues to deteriorate, and the export orders in the PRD and the Yangtze River Delta continue to decrease. Meanwhile, domestic demand is still relatively rigid, and import growth is continuing.

Export tightening policy or partial relaxation

Since the beginning of this year, China's export enterprises are facing unprecedented challenges due to rising raw material prices, tight monetary policy and the rise of the RMB exchange rate, coupled with a marked reduction in external demand.

For example, the textile and garment industry has been decreasing in gross profit since this year, and the export growth rate has declined continuously.

Data show that before May, Guangdong textile and clothing exports 11 billion 510 million US dollars, down 15.7% compared to the same period last year.

The government is particularly concerned about this.

Recently, Premier Wen Jiabao and vice premier Wang Qishan met with exporters from Jiangsu, Shanghai and Shandong, and listened to their concerns about the decline in global demand.

Chen Deming, Minister of Commerce, also went to Zhejiang to understand the situation faced by export enterprises.

Many analysts said that in view of the potential impact of foreign trade on employment and economic growth, the Chinese government may relax some tightening policies in some industries with high dependence on exports in the second half of the year.

Ma Qing expects export growth to decline further in the next few months, so the government may relax control over exports.

For example, raise the export tax rebate rate and cancel some restrictions on export.

In fact, in the textile and garment industry, news came out recently that the national policy on callback of textile export tax rebates has been approved and will be introduced in the middle of this month. The export tax rebate rate of textile and clothing will be increased by 2 percentage points.